Sunday, May 10, 2009
Last Look: Pakistan
The big question with the turmoil in Pakistan is what will happen next? The military has been ordered to eliminate all militants, and in return they have promised to use all resources available to crush the internal threat from the Taliban. One possible outcome from a commitment of this level is a quick, decisive victory for Pakistan. However, the army's primary training is to deal with India's army, not counter-insurgency. This makes a quick victory unlikely. Another scenario is an inconclusive result, where the Taliban uses the armies tendency to use artillery and airstrikes to its advantage, maximizing civilian casualties and alienating the population from the government, which is not what Pakistan needs right now. The final and worst-case scenario would be for the militants to lash out against Pakistan's neighbor, India, like they did earlier this year in Mumbai. This would cause regional tensions and divert troops away from battling the militants to focusing more on the threat of retaliation from India. Hopefully a regional conflict can be avoided and the government can defeat the militants.
Obama's greatest challenges will come in South Asia, especially in dealing with the growing Taliban threat in the Afghan-Pakistan border. The Taliban are spreading and coming into direct conflict with the government troops, who are slowly trying to regain ground in the northwestern regions. Obama has made this region the focal point of his administration, much like the Bush administration put so much emphasis on Iraq. In a very critical region linking the Middle East to the rising Eastern Asian economies, terrorism and corruption is high. The battle for the soul of this region starts with general reform and hard action. Governments need to assert their authority in their own countries first and foremost, and neutralize the militant threat. The next phase of the war much take place in the civilian sectors. In an attempt to win the hearts and minds of the people, this region needs to take responsibility for its youth and reform the education system. Once the immediate threat of violence is dealt with, the people of this region need to buckle down for the long haul and try to undo decades of corruption, violence, and turmoil.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Last Look: Afghanistan
Meanwhile, US efforts against the militants were set back as Afghan President Hamid Karzai urged the cessation of all airstrikes, due to the large amount of unintentional civilian casualties which are becoming extremely unpopular. Karzai made the announcement on CNN as he visited Washington to meet with US President Obama and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari. Karzai went on to say that the recent attacks that killed over 100 civilians were completely the US's fault, and not the Taliban, as some in the military claimed. He also said that the airstrikes were not an effective way to battle terrorists, and that the strategy was not working. US officials, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the US would work hard to avoid such "loss of innocent life".
Irregardless, another airstrike made after these comments killed an unknown amount of people in western Afghanistan, in the province of Farah. The US claims that the Taliban ushered people into houses as they were being attacked, in order to maximize civilian casualties and dishearten the US-led coalition. While the US commits more troops to Afghanistan in order to put down the flare up of violence, neighboring Pakistan is slowly being dragged into a civil war...
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Pakistan in Turmoil
Shortly after Clinton's address, talks between the Taliban and the Pakistani government were put on hold, a Taliban negotiator said, due to Pakistani military operations against the Taliban. Pakistani troops engaged in a firefight with Taliban militants in Lower Dir, in the Taliban-controlled North West Frontier Province (NWFP). The NWFP recently signed a deal implementing Sharia law in return for an end to the Taliban insurgency. Official numbers claim that 25 militants were killed on Sunday, while another 20 were killed on Monday. The Pakistani government rebutted the Taliban threats to suspend talks by saying they will increase the the power of the government's judicial system, and enforce any decision it makes. The current situation here is very tense.
Meanwhile, the US is breathing down Pakistan's neck in trying to "motivate" them to fight back against the Taliban. Obama puts the unruly and Taliban controlled tribal belt at the Afghan-Pakistani border at the cornerstone of his new strategy. Some incentives include addition civilian aid, and performance based, military aid. The performance based aid is supposed to address the corruption within the the Pakistani government and to counteract those working with the Taliban. If the military does not perform well, they will not receive empty funding. Only a military that helps the US on the ground will receive US aid in fighting its enemies. Hopefully this will help purge the ISI and other government entities of Taliban sympathizers somewhat, and help get the Pakistani military more involved in fighting against the Taliban. It is also the first time that such accusations have been made publicly against the ISI's corruption, something that has been common knowledge for some time but was the "elephant in the room" if you will.
Model UN Reaction
Looking back, I think we were well prepared. We each had done extensive research on the Middle East in general, as well as the background and perspectives that Kuwait has in real life. This gave us all a general idea and put us all on the same page so that we could have meaningful discussions. I don’t feel like there was any point or event where we did not have some tangible evidence to back up where we were going and to justify our actions. I feel like as a group we really did a great job and the papers we had to do beforehand really helped us prepare for the Crisis Simulation.
As a group, I am most proud of how we handled the discovery of oil in the Persian Gulf. We as Kuwait decided that we should try to block Iran from claiming any oil. What we did was organize a meeting with the US and Iraq and signed a deal with Exxon to extract oil on our behalf, giving us substantial royalties. In the end, we as a group were able to gain the most for our tiny little country while blocking out the much more powerful Iran from gaining access to more oil. As one of our biggest threats, we could not allow them to gain additional wealth from the new oil that would only make them more of a threat. In a way, we practiced balance of power politics in order to form a regional alliance with Iraq and a partnership with the US to counteract the power and influence of Iran.
My only regret was that we were not able to get our friends in Syria to attack Israel. For fun, we had a deal with Syria that stated we would support them in a defensive war against Israel. Israeli soldiers went on a murderous rampage in the Golan Heights, and then sent in 20,000 troops into the region. We consider this Syrian land and hence an act of war against Syria. Had Syria fought back, we would have supported them, along with Iraq and Hezbollah.
In all, I thoroughly enjoyed the simulation and got a lot out of it. I had fun personally, and learned a lot by experiencing international politics firsthand. As a small nation, I feel like we made ourselves relevant and performed at a much greater level than was expected of us. I did regret not being able to fight back against Israeli aggression, but there is only so much we can do at once. I would definitely try it again.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
New Strategies
Meanwhile in Afghanistan, the new Obama strategies are seemingly angering the militants. The Obama administration alongside the Afghans, have stepped up efforts to curb the opium trade. Afghani opium, which provides 90% of the world’s total output, not only hampers the efforts of the government, but also provides a crucial income to militants. In response to the stepped up efforts, suicide bombings against the anti-drug patrols has increased dramatically. This past week, one such bombing on a patrol killed at least 5, injuring 17. Among the dead and injured were 13 civilians and 4 police. One child was also killed. The US soldiers have killed 10 militants in battles over opium fields this week in the south and east of Afghanistan. A new push is being made into the northern regions of Afghanistan, north of Kabul. Not only is this region a Taliban stronghold, but it is also the heart of the opium trade. We can only expect violence to increase more with this new push against the opium industry.
In neighboring Pakistan, a recent US envoy, part of the greater Obama mission to reach out to our partners, has been met with mixed reviews. Pakistan made clear that is wants to have the US’s trust and that without it, nothing can be done. They were referring mainly to the monetary aid the Obama administration promised, upwards of $1 billion, but that the US wants some form of oversight of where the money is going, since Pakistan’s government is notoriously corrupt. This has caused relations to cool a bit, but not completely. The Pakistanis also made it clear that there was a “gap” in opinion about the recent drone attacks. Obama has stated that right now Pakistan is in a battle for its own survival. His new plan involved both Pakistan and Afghanistan as part of a greater world view in destroying the Taliban militants in both countries. The recent increase in measures against the Taliban in Pakistan has been largely successful to a point, but has caused a great deal of turmoil and violence within the country. The country is clearly split between those that support the Taliban and those who oppose it. This split and the frustration of the US success in the drone attacks has lead to a spike in bombings recently. While this is quite unfortunate, it means that the new tactics are working and frustrating the militants.
Kuwaiti Defense
Kuwait: Defense
From 1899 until 1961 Kuwait was a British possession, and therefore was protected by Britain’s mighty army. In the 1920’s and 1930’s, Britain helped protect Kuwait from Iraqi and Saudi ambitions to claim the land. By 1961, the year of Kuwaiti independence, the British had trained and equipped a combined arms force of about 2,500 men. A small air force and navy was started in 1961 by the British as well, giving the small country a good military base to build on later.
Kuwait is in a very precarious position. As a small country of immense wealth, located directly on the Persian Gulf, it is surrounded by many larger nations that they have never truly gotten along well with. One of its neighbors, Iran, only 40km away, has repeatedly stated it seeks to export its Islamic revolution ideals to its neighbors. In fact, in the Iran-Iraq War from 1980-1988, Kuwait sided with Iraq against Iran, providing Iraq with around US$6 billion. As a result, Iran sponsored terrorist attacks on Kuwait, which only helped further Kuwait’s resolve to help Iraq.
Nevertheless, Kuwait’s biggest threat comes from not from Iran, but from Iraq. Iraq, especially in the Saddam era, has repeatedly questioned Kuwait’s right to existence, and claimed the country as one of its own provinces. In fact, in 1991, Iraq invaded Kuwait and took over. This sparked the Gulf War in which the US-led coalition was forced to intervene and push back the Iraqis. This war was especially damaging to Kuwait’s military. Large number of personnel were killed, captured, or dispersed, and most Kuwaiti military equipment was destroyed or captured by the Iraqi Army. It is estimated that 90% of all military installations suffered major damage during this time. Kuwait expected to spend about US$9 billion, six times the prewar defense budget, in 1992 to replace destroyed equipment and installations.
As a result of the Gulf War, Kuwait entered into a ten-year defense cooperation agreement with the United States in September 1991. The agreement included United States port access, military equipment storage, and joint training and exercises. Similar but less extensive ten-year cooperation agreements were subsequently concluded with Britain and France.
Since liberation, Kuwait, with the help of the United States and other allies, has made significant efforts to increase the size and modernity of its armed forces. These efforts are succeeding. The government also continues to improve defense arrangements with other Arab states, as well as UN Security Council members. During Operation Iraqi Freedom, in 2003, Kuwaiti military elements successfully operated missile defense systems. The US currently stations 5,000 military personnel in the country, as part of their defense agreement.
Quick Facts according to CIA World Factbook:
Military Branches: Land Forces, Kuwaiti Navy, Kuwaiti Air Force (Al-Quwwat al-Jawwiya al-Kuwaitiya), National Guard (2007)
Military service age and obligation: 18 years of age for compulsory and voluntary military service; reserve obligation to age 40 with 1 month annual training; women have served in police forces since 1999 (2006)
Manpower available for military service: males age 16-49: 1,032,408
females age 16-49: 568,657 (2008 est.)
Manpower fit for military service: males age 16-49: 892,816
females age 16-49: 500,540 (2008 est.)
Manpower reaching militarily significant age annually: male: 17,737
female: 18,519 (2008 est.)
Military expenditures: 5.3% of GDP (2006)
Page last modified: 27-04-2005 18:10:47 Zulu
ARMY
SYSTEMS Inventory
1995 2000 2005
MBT
M-84 150 150(50% in store) 150(50% in store)
M-1A2 50 218 218
Chieftain 20 17(in store) -
AIFV
BMP-2 46 46 76
BMP-3 76 76 120
Desert Warrior 8 254 254
APC
M-113 153 60 -
M-113A2 - - 230
M-577 6 40 40
Fahd 40 40(in store) 40(in store)
TPz-1 Fuchs - - 11
SP Artillery
M-109-A2 20 23 23
GCT 18(in store) 18(in store) 18(in store)
F-3 16 18 18
PLZ 45 - - 54
Mortars
SP (81mm) 6 44 60
M-30 SP (107mm) 6 6 6
RT F-1 (120mm) - 12 12
ATGW
TOW M-901 8 8 8
TOW II 60 66 66
MRL
Smerch 9A52 (300m) - 27 27
Air Defence Guns
Oerlikon (35mm) - - n/a
SAM
Hawk Phase III - - 24
Aspide - - 12
Starburst - - 48
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/gulf/kuwait-army-equip.htm
Page last modified: 27-04-2005 18:10:58 Zulu
NAVY
SYSTEMS Inventory
1995 2000 2005
Missile Craft
Um al-Maradim - 6 8
Istiqlal 1 1 1
Al Sanbouk
Istiqlal 1 1 1
Patrol Craft
Al Shaheed PCC
Istiqlal - 2 n/a
Support and Misc.
LCM
Istiqlal - 2 2
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/gulf/kuwait-navy-equip.htm
Page last modified: 27-04-2005 18:10:44 Zulu
Air Force
SYSTEMS Inventory
1995 2000 2005
Fighters
FA/18-c 32 32 31
FA/18-D 8 8 8
Mirage F1-CK/BK 8 14 14
Training
Hawk 64 12 12 11
Shorts Tucano/TD> 16 16 16
Transport
L-100-300 3 3 3
DC-9 1 1 1
Helicopters
AS-332(Transport) 4 4 4
SA-330(Transport) 8 8 9
SA-342 16 16 16
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/gulf/kuwait-af-equip.htm
Text Sources:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ku.html
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35876.htm#defense
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/gulf/kuwait-mil.htm
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Kuwait
Kuwait has been the focus of attention more recently due to the Gulf War of 1990, in which Iraq invaded Kuwait. Iraq claimed that Kuwait was one of its provinces and invaded. The UN denounced the invasion, and a US-led coalition pushed the Iraqis out.
The population of Kuwait is estimated at around 3-1.5 million people. This includes 2 million non-nationals, meaning Kuwaitis are not the majority of the population. Approximately 60% of residents are Arab, and about 40% are Asian, mainly South Asian. Arabic is the official language of Kuwait, although English is widely spoken. About 85% of the population practices Islam.
Kuwait is also a highly cosmopolitan society. The country is very small and is centered around Kuwait city, which is not only a tourist attraction, but a major trading center in the area. It has a very advanced education system due to its extreme wealth. Kuwaiti media is rated as the second most open media in the Middle East, after Israel. There are hundreds of independent radio stations, and many newspapers. In fact, there is a law prohibiting the reference of God and Prophet Muhammad. In 2005, a women was first elected to the cabinet, and in 2006, women gained the right to vote. Overall, Kuwait is one of the richest, most progressive Arab nations.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuwait
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ku.html
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0107694.html
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Who are the Taliban?
The Taliban emerged in 1994 in the midst of the turmoil and fighting after the USSR withdrew in 1988. They are supported mainly by the ethnic group, the Pashtuns. They ruled Afghanistan until 2001, when they were toppled by a US-led invasion following the September 11th attacks. The terrorists responsible for the attack were being harbored by the Taliban regime, and refused to turn over Osama bin Laden and his leadership.
The Taliban rose to power by promising to bring stability and security to a war-weary people. By 1994 the Afghans were tired of fighting and would do almost anything to achieve this. By the fall of 1994, the Taliban had control of about 90% of the country, including the capital Kabul.
There are many ties between the Taliban and neighboring Pakistan. For instance, in the early years of the fighting, the Taliban rescued a Pakistani convoy under attack from rival mujaheddin forces. Also, most of the Taliban supporters are Pashtun, the majority ethic group in Afghanistan and the now infamous tribal regions of Pakistan.
With the Taliban's roots of supporting Islamist extremism, they also were open to harboring Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda terrorist network. This is what eventually led them to a war with the US and ISAF forces. After other bombing in Kenya and Tanzania, the US demanded that the Taliban extradite Osama bin Laden. They refused and the US bombed Osama's camp. They also failed to hand him over after 9-11, which caused the US and its allies to invade on October 7, 2001. Since then, the Taliban was routed from Kabul and most of the country, and forced back, along with al Qaeda, into the Pashtun tribal regions on the Afghan-Pakistan border. They have recently gained in strength and are becoming more bold in their attacks. For now the Taliban are still out there and still fighting against the US and its allies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1549285.stm
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Closing of the Kyrgyzstan airbase
However, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has stated that losing the Kyrgyzstan airbase wont be an Achilles Heel of the war effort. "Mr Gates said the Manas base was not irreplaceable. The Pentagon would consider 'a somewhat larger payment but we're not going to be ridiculous about it', he added."
There are other bases in the immediate area that could be used Gates stated, but its more convenient for Americans to use the Kyrgyzstan base. With the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the recent events in Pakistan, the US needs all available manpower and allies at its disposal. When all is said and done, this could not have come at a worse time.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7900367.stm
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Introduction to the war in Afghanistan
As the Obama White House takes the reins from the Bush administration, the situation in Afghanistan has gone from bad to worse. Formerly the stronghold of the Taliban regime, and a staging ground for the al Qaeda terrorist network, Afghanistan has seen a resurgence of violence recently.
During his presidential campaign, President Barrack Obama repeatedly stated that he would shift the focus of the loosely defined "War on Terror" from Bush's Iraq, to the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan, if necessary. Current strategies being discussed include the shifting of tens of thousands of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan. To gauge the situation, Obama has appointed a new envoy to Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, who took a brief tour of Pakistan and the semi autonomous tribal regions on the Afghan-Pakistan border before settling in Kabul.
After his brief tour of the region, Richard Holbrooke urged that Afghanistan will be much tougher than Iraq. The Taliban and al Qaeda fighters, including Osama bin Laden, have fled to the mountains in the tribal borderland between Afghanistan and Pakistan, where there is little government control and ample places to hide out, resupply, and retrain. After spending many years regrouping, these fighters have become more bold and frequent in their attacks.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7886664.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7877505.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7854797.stm